There is no such thing as a free lunch
Quentin Grafton responds to the question, what is your Theory of Change (TOC) in terms of shifting away from the current business-as-usual trajectory of ever rising greenhouse gas emissions? While acknowledging TOC has value at an individual or organizational level, he sees it as a distraction to the changes in how democracy is practiced if we are to effectively mitigate climate change.
The catalyst for this article was the question I posed in a recent blog post on Sustainabity Bites (What’s your theory of change?). Dr Jennifer Andrew is a social scientist, writer, environmental educator and editor, and long-time friend of Sustainability Bites. If you have your own ideas on what brings about (or blocks) change, please consider putting down your thoughts ‘on paper’ and sending them to me.
More people are growing concerned about climate change and environmental decline. But when will society respond with real change? Is it just a matter of waiting for a majority before we get the transformative change that scientists are crying out for. What actually catalyses transformative change, anyway?
Earth Day – does it provide hope, make a difference or is it actually something that blinds us to a greater truth? Protect the environment, it demands; let us create a truly sustainable future, it implores. But shift the status quo? Not if it pushes up the cost of living!
While it might be that the CoPs are not delivering what most people hope for, and what many politicians have us believe they are supposed to deliver, for now it’s the main game in town. And if we want them to have greater impact, maybe we should be acknowledging the true nature of the CoP and throw the spotlight back onto what our own elected leaders are actually achieving. Someone has to set the pace and the rest might follow.
“Travel is a force for good!” So reads the slogan of one of the world’s biggest tourism operations. But ‘good’ for who? Definitely good for individual travelers who are revitalized through exposure to amazing new places, people and experiences. Good for the global economy? Undoubtedly yes, but good for the planet itself? Not so much. And in the spaces between these tourism ‘goods’ and ‘bads’ we hear the seductive siren song of BAU (business as usual) and maybe begin to appreciate just how forceful BAU can be.
The sirens of BAU (Business as Usual) are singing a seductive song that everything will be okay if we just apply a bit more technology, a bit more efficiency and a lot more optimism. Well, the wheels are starting to come off ‘spaceship Earth’ yet the siren song is still being sung, to great applause. Consider the latest offering: Hannah Ritchie’s ‘Not the End of the World: How We Can be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet’. It’s a Pollyanna potion we should think carefully about before taking.
There’s a super battle underway for Planet Earth. It involves titanic forces and existential stakes. One side of the battle has a super power that serenades people into a false sense of security, and this side is winning. Wake up citizens of Earth, this is no block buster movie.
To quote a much (over) used aphorism, ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.’ It sums up our approach to sustainability. I call this the ‘green button syndrome’, and to appreciate it, think of the world as a photocopier. It’s also a good way of understanding our policy response to mass coral bleaching.
NOAA has declared a Global Mass Bleaching Event and Australia’s Prime Minister races to the Great Barrier Reef to make an announcement! At last, the world is responding to the existential threat of climate change. But wait, what’s this; the PM is actually in Gladstone (at the southern end of the GBR) to celebrate the shipping of fossil fuel to Asia! Is this some sick parody? No, it’s real life. Welcome to the new normal – just like the old normal but with none of the certainty we once all enjoyed.
The Great Barrier Reef is facing an existential threat of our own making. We know what the solution is but our current governance around the Reef is inadequate to meet the challenge.
We can’t speak truth to power; science does not guide our decision making; and we can’t acknowledge that current economic priorities (and vested interests) mean that “the best managed reef ecosystems in the world” is being hung out to bleach.
Political leaders tell us not to worry; today’s problems can always be fixed up tomorrow. We can have our cake and eat it. But what if our actions today produce irreversible changes in the way the Earth system behaves? Maybe ‘waiting for tomorrow’s solutions’ is not the rational thing to do. Quentin Grafton reflects on the consequences.
‘Trumpism’ is a bit like crazy ants? Both require certain system conditions for them to become super pests. Throwing Trump in jail won’t remove the threat. The conditions for Trump’s ascendency are still present and will enable the next ‘crazy man’ to do just as much damage. We need to remediate the craziness and address the gaps in society that let so many people believe the system isn’t working for them.
The road ahead is unclear and uncertain. ‘Business as usual’ has us thinking it will be much as it has been in the past but it’s likely humanity is approaching major tipping and turning points.
Turning points make sense of history and are like looking behind in the rearview mirror to better know where we have come from so that we can drive better. Tipping points are about carefully looking at the road in front of us to anticipate the risks ahead and to take appropriate action to avoid the hazards.
What do we know, more or less, for sure about the future? First, the world is getting hotter at a faster rate. Second, maintaining or increasing greenhouse emissions will result in substantial temperature increases within coming decades that entails substantial costs and risks. Third, carbon sequestration, over the coming few decades will only make, at best, a very marginal contribution to lowering atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Fourth, despite the rhetoric, the world’s greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise to at least 2030. These are our future certainties under business-as-usual. Much of the uncertainty about what the future holds is about what we choose to do about it.